Who returns to the lunar surface — and how close are they, really? A continuously reviewed guide to the programmes defining the new lunar era.
Dates are targets, not guarantees. We revise them when official plans change.
Editorially reviewed · 23 Aug 2026The most important part of this page: verified schedule changes, tests and missions. Every entry leads to its original source.
CNSA says the mission does not meet conditions for this year’s planned launch window following a comprehensive assessment. No new date was announced. This changes the robotic south-pole campaign; it does not by itself move China’s stated crewed-landing goal before 2030.
On Aug. 19, CNSA reported that Chang’e 7 and its Long March 5 launcher had completed work in the technical area and transferred vertically to the Wenchang launch area. A later Aug. 23 notice confirmed that the planned 2026 launch window would not proceed.
NASA’s update tracks Blue Moon MK1, Blue Ghost Mission 2, IM-3 and Griffin-1. Before astronauts arrive, these robotic flights are intended to validate cargo delivery, navigation, power and surface operations near the lunar south pole.
NASA delivered NavCube3-mini for integration into the Altus-1 relay satellite. The future commercial relay network is intended to provide communications and navigation coverage for rovers, landers and crews in the challenging south-pole region.
NASA selected SpaceX for an Artemis III laser-communications demonstration. Two compact terminals are intended to supplement Orion’s existing links and transmit 4K imagery and video from the orbital rendezvous-and-docking tests with lander test vehicles.
NASA has begun stacking Artemis III SLS booster hardware and is completing Orion preparations. The 2027 mission is intended to test Orion docking with commercial-lander test vehicles in Earth orbit before the Artemis IV surface expedition.
NASA named a four-person crew and clarified that Artemis III will test Orion rendezvous and docking with one or both commercial landers in low Earth orbit. The lunar landing is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028.
China says the Chang’e 7 spacecraft is at Wenchang for pre-launch preparations. Its south-pole survey is designed to combine an orbiter, lander, rover and hopping probe.
The programme is developing the Long March 10, Mengzhou spacecraft, Lanyue lander, Wangyu suit and Tansuo rover. Its plan calls for two launches and a lunar-orbit rendezvous.
A transparent assessment that changes only after a verified milestone or official schedule change.
CHANCE OF THE NEXT CREWED LUNAR LANDING
CHANCE OF THE NEXT CREWED LUNAR LANDING
USA holds the current lead — but the first Artemis landing still depends on an unflown integrated landing system.
Not betting odds and not a certainty forecast.
Editorial assessment of publicly announced schedules, flown crewed capability and the remaining integrated-flight tests. The percentages are a transparent current judgement, not betting odds or a guarantee.
It is not one machine. Each expedition is a chain of launch vehicle, crew spacecraft, landing system and surface hardware. Each card links directly to the relevant technology.
One destination, distinct architectures and different risks. The comparison separates demonstrated capabilities from publicly announced milestones.
01Artemis IV, after a 2027 systems demonstration
A coalition-led architecture: NASA provides SLS and Orion, while commercial partners develop the human landing systems. The campaign now puts a crewed integration test before the first return to the surface.
Artemis III · crewed lander rendezvous and docking test in Earth orbit
Key dependency: lander readiness and integrated operations.
02A national programme with a parallel robotic south-pole campaign
China is developing its crew vehicle, lunar lander, heavy launcher, surface suit and rover together. Its plan calls for two launches and a rendezvous in lunar orbit before a surface sortie.
Chang’e 7 · south-pole resource and environment survey
Key dependency: first flights and full-system qualification.
One working map of what happened, what is publicly planned and what still needs verification. Filters refine the view; they do not alter the data.
14 September 1959
Luna 2
The first human-made object to reach the lunar surface; a reference point for the Soviet lunar record.
20 July 1969
Saturn V · CSM Columbia · LM Eagle
The first humans step onto the Moon, still the essential precedent for a crewed surface expedition.
22 August 1976
Luna 24
The final Soviet lunar sample-return mission of the original race; the Russian track is kept here as history, not as an unsupported current forecast.
3 January 2019
Chang’e 4 lander · Yutu-2 rover
The first soft landing on the lunar far side, giving the robotic programme operational experience with relay communications.
16 December 2020
Chang’e 5
China becomes the third country to return lunar material to Earth, an important building block for later polar exploration.
11 December 2022
SLS · Orion
The first integrated SLS and Orion flight around the Moon, testing the return heat shield and operations chain before a crew flies.
25 June 2024
Chang’e 6
The first return of samples collected from the Moon’s far side, extending China’s automated sampling and return capability.
April 2026 · completed
SLS · Orion
Orion’s first crewed flight completed a nearly 10-day trip around the Moon, directly bridging Artemis I and the landing campaign.
August 2026 · schedule update
Orbiter · lander · rover · hopping probe
CNSA says Chang’e 7 does not meet conditions for the planned 2026 launch window. A new launch date has not been announced; the south-pole survey remains a programme dependency to watch.
No earlier than fall 2026 · watch
Blue Origin Blue Moon Mark 1 Endurance
The cargo lander is intended to deliver science equipment to Shackleton Connecting Ridge and demonstrate practices that reduce risk for later crewed landings.
Late 2026 · watch
Astrobotic Griffin · Astrolab FLIP
Griffin is intended to deliver more than 500 kilograms of cargo including the FLIP rover, maturing mobility, autonomous operations and logistics for future surface vehicles.
By the end of 2026 · watch
Intuitive Machines IM-3 · Lunar Vertex
The third mission is intended to carry the Lunar Vertex science payload and other international elements. NASA lists it among the first steps toward sustained surface operations.
2027 · planned
SLS · Orion · commercial HLS
The mission is designed to test rendezvous, docking and integrated operations between Orion and one or both commercial landers. It is not yet a lunar landing.
Early 2028 · watch
SLS · Orion · Human Landing System
NASA targets the first Artemis surface expedition near the south pole. Its date depends on lander readiness and the preceding integrated test.
Late 2028 · watch
SLS · Orion · HLS · Moon Base
NASA lists another surface mission for late 2028 and the start of lunar-base building. This is a target schedule, not a fixed launch date.
Around 2029 · watch
Chang’e 8 · international science payloads
CNSA lists a target around 2029. The mission is intended to study resources and in-situ utilization technologies near the south pole, together with Chang’e 7 forming a research-station foundation.
Before 2030 · watch
Long March 10 · Mengzhou · Lanyue · Wangyu · Tansuo
China publicly maintains a crewed-landing goal before 2030. Its architecture calls for two launches and a crew-lander rendezvous in lunar orbit.
Four readiness stages distinguish flight-proven capability from hardware still awaiting its first flight. This is not a national scorecard, but a map of the systems that must work together before landing.
Both programmes require three connected layers. The difference is primarily what has already flown and what still needs qualification.
Real imagery shows the systems that must work together: spacecraft, lander, launcher and surface mobility.
Filter today’s USA–China contest against the Russian and Soviet lunar legacy — from the first impact to sample-return missions.
The first human-made object to reach the lunar surface.
The first crewed lunar landing starts the only human surface era so far.
The Soviet Union begins the first remote rover mission on another world.
The final Soviet lunar sample-return mission of the original Space Race.
China returns a soft lander and rover to the Moon after a long global pause.
First soft landing on the far side of the Moon.
China becomes the third country to return lunar material to Earth.
Orion completes its uncrewed deep-space flight test.
The first samples collected from the Moon’s far side arrive on Earth.
NASA’s first crewed Artemis mission becomes the bridge to the landing campaign.
